Nego, another one bites the dust. AFU roknule tj. srušile ruski Su-25 danas.

Kad su se Rusi naljutili na NATO što prilazi njihovom teritoriju, što bi to Ameri morali nakon što su im Rusi ušli u kuću.
Populističko narančasto govno.


The Hidden History of Trump’s First Trip to Moscow
In 1987, a young real estate developer traveled to the Soviet Union. The KGB almost certainly made the trip happen.

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It was 1984 and General Vladimir Alexandrovich Kryuchkov had a problem. The general occupied one of the KGB’s most exalted posts. He was head of the First Chief Directorate, the prestigious KGB arm responsible for gathering foreign intelligence.

Kryuchkov had begun his career with five years at the Soviet mission in Budapest under Ambassador Yuri Andropov. In 1967 Andropov became KGB chairman. Kryuchkov went to Moscow, took up a number of sensitive posts, and established a reputation as a devoted and hardworking officer. By 1984, Kryuchkov’s directorate in Moscow was bigger than ever before—12,000 officers, up from about 3,000 in the 1960s. His headquarters at Yasenevo, on the wooded southern outskirts of the city, was expanding: Workmen were busy constructing a 22-story annex and a new 11-story building.

In politics, change was in the air. Soon a new man would arrive in the Kremlin, Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev’s policy of detente with the West—a refreshing contrast to the global confrontation of previous general secretaries—meant the directorate’s work abroad was more important than ever.

Kryuchkov faced several challenges. First, a hawkish president, Ronald Reagan, was in power in Washington. The KGB regarded his two predecessors, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, as weak. By contrast Reagan was seen as a potent adversary. The directorate was increasingly preoccupied with what it believed—wrongly—was an American plot to conduct a preemptive nuclear strike against the USSR.

It was around this time that Donald Trump appears to have attracted the attention of Soviet intelligence. How that happened, and where that relationship began, is an answer hidden somewhere in the KGB's secret archives. Assuming, that is, that the documents still exist.

Trump's first visit to Soviet Moscow in 1987 looks, with hindsight, to be part of a pattern. The dossier by the former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele asserts that the Kremlin had been cultivating Trump for “at least five years” before his stunning victory in the 2016 US presidential election. This would take us back to around 2011 or 2012.

In fact, the Soviet Union was interested in him too, three decades earlier. The top level of the Soviet diplomatic service arranged his 1987 Moscow visit. With assistance from the KGB. It took place while Kryuchkov was seeking to improve the KGB's operational techniques in one particular and sensitive area. The spy chief wanted KGB staff abroad to recruit more Americans.

In addition to shifting politics in Moscow, Kryuchkov’s difficulty had to do with intelligence gathering. The results from KGB officers abroad had been disappointing. Too often they would pretend to have obtained information from secret sources. In reality, they had recycled material from newspapers or picked up gossip over lunch with a journalist. Too many residencies had “paper agents” on their books: targets for recruitment who had nothing to do with real intelligence.

Kryuchkov sent out a series of classified memos to KGB heads of station. Oleg Gordievsky—formerly based in Denmark and then in Great Britain—copied them and passed them to British intelligence. He later co-published them with the historian Christopher Andrew under the title Comrade Kryuchkov’s Instructions: Top Secret Files on KGB Foreign Operations 1975–1985.

In January 1984 Kryuchkov addressed the problem during a biannual review held in Moscow, and at a special conference six months later. The urgent subject: how to improve agent recruitment. The general urged his officers to be more “creative.” Previously they had relied on identifying candidates who showed ideological sympathy toward the USSR: leftists, trade unionists and so on. By the mid-1980s these were not so many. So KGB officers should “make bolder use of material incentives”: money. And use flattery, an important tool.

The Center, as KGB headquarters was known, was especially concerned about its lack of success in recruiting US citizens, according to Andrew and Gordievsky. The PR Line—that is, the Political Intelligence Department stationed in KGB residencies abroad—was given explicit instructions to find “U.S. targets to cultivate or, at the very least, official contacts.” “The main effort must be concentrated on acquiring valuable agents,” Kryuchkov said.

The memo—dated February 1, 1984—was to be destroyed as soon as its contents had been read. It said that despite improvements in “information gathering,” the KGB “has not had great success in operation against the main adversary [America].”

One solution was to make wider use of “the facilities of friendly intelligence services”—for example, Czechoslovakian or East German spy networks.

And: “Further improvement in operational work with agents calls for fuller and wider utilisation of confidential and special unofficial contacts. These should be acquired chiefly among prominent figures in politics and society, and important representatives of business and science.” These should not only “supply valuable information” but also “actively influence” a country’s foreign policy “in a direction of advantage to the USSR.”

There were, of course, different stages of recruitment. Typically, a case officer would invite a target to lunch. The target would be classified as an “official contact.” If the target appeared responsive, he (it was rarely she) would be promoted to a “subject of deep study,” an obyekt razrabotki. The officer would build up a file, supplemented by official and covert material. That might include readouts from conversations obtained through bugging by the KGB’s technical team.

The KGB also distributed a secret personality questionnaire, advising case officers what to look for in a successful recruitment operation. In April 1985 this was updated for “prominent figures in the West.” The directorate’s aim was to draw the target “into some form of collaboration with us.” This could be “as an agent, or confidential or special or unofficial contact.”

The form demanded basic details—name, profession, family situation, and material circumstances. There were other questions, too: what was the likelihood that the “subject could come to power (occupy the post of president or prime minister)”? And an assessment of personality. For example: “Are pride, arrogance, egoism, ambition or vanity among subject’s natural characteristics?”

The most revealing section concerned kompromat. The document asked for: “Compromising information about subject, including illegal acts in financial and commercial affairs, intrigues, speculation, bribes, graft … and exploitation of his position to enrich himself.” Plus “any other information” that would compromise the subject before “the country’s authorities and the general public.” Naturally the KGB could exploit this by threatening “disclosure.”

Finally, “his attitude towards women is also of interest.” The document wanted to know: “Is he in the habit of having affairs with women on the side?”

When did the KGB open a file on Donald Trump? We don’t know, but Eastern Bloc security service records suggest this may have been as early as 1977. That was the year when Trump married Ivana Zelnickova, a twenty-eight-year-old model from Czechoslovakia. Zelnickova was a citizen of a communist country. She was therefore of interest both to the Czech intelligence service, the StB, and to the FBI and CIA.

During the Cold War, Czech spies were known for their professionalism. Czech and Hungarian officers were typically used in espionage actions abroad, especially in the United States and Latin America. They were less obvious than Soviet operatives sent by Moscow.

Zelnickova was born in Zlin, an aircraft manufacturing town in Moravia. Her first marriage was to an Austrian real estate agent. In the early 1970s she moved to Canada, first to Toronto and then to Montreal, to be with a ski instructor boyfriend. Exiting Czechoslovakia during this period was, the files said, “incredibly difficult.” Zelnickova moved to New York. In April 1977 she married Trump.

According to files in Prague, declassified in 2016, Czech spies kept a close eye on the couple in Manhattan. (The agents who undertook this task were code-named Al Jarza and Lubos.) They opened letters sent home by Ivana to her father, Milos, an engineer. Milos was never an agent or asset. But he had a functional relationship with the Czech secret police, who would ask him how his daughter was doing abroad and in return permit her visits home. There was periodic surveillance of the Trump family in the United States. And when Ivana and Donald Trump, Jr., visited Milos in the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, further spying, or “cover.”

Like with other Eastern Bloc agencies, the Czechs would have shared their intelligence product with their counterparts in Moscow, the KGB. Trump may have been of interest for several reasons. One, his wife came from Eastern Europe. Two—at a time after 1984 when the Kremlin was experimenting with perestroika, or Communist Party reform—Trump had a prominent profile as a real estate developer and tycoon. According to the Czech files, Ivana mentioned her husband’s growing interest in politics. Might Trump at some stage consider a political career?

The KGB wouldn’t invite someone to Moscow out of altruism. Dignitaries flown to the USSR on expenses-paid trips were typically left-leaning writers or cultural figures. The state would expend hard currency; the visitor would say some nice things about Soviet life; the press would report these remarks, seeing in them a stamp of approval.

Despite Gorbachev’s policy of engagement, he was still a Soviet leader. The KGB continued to view the West with deep suspicion. It carried on with efforts to subvert Western institutions and acquire secret sources, with NATO its No. 1 strategic intelligence target.

At this point it is unclear how the KGB regarded Trump. To become a full KGB agent, a foreigner had to agree to two things. (An “agent” in a Russian or British context was a secret intelligence source.) One was “conspiratorial collaboration.” The other was willingness to take KGB instruction.

According to Andrew and Gordievsky’s book Comrade Kryuchkov’s Instructions, targets who failed to meet these criteria were classified as “confidential contacts.” The Russian word was doveritelnaya svyaz. The aspiration was to turn trusted contacts into full-blown agents, an upper rung of the ladder.

As Kryuchkov explained, KGB residents were urged to abandon “stereotyped methods” of recruitment and use more flexible strategies—if necessary getting their wives or other family members to help.

As Trump tells it, the idea for his first trip to Moscow came after he found himself seated next to the Soviet ambassador Yuri Dubinin. This was in autumn 1986; the event was a luncheon held by Leonard Lauder, the businessman son of Estée Lauder. Dubinin’s daughter Natalia “had read about Trump Tower and knew all about it,” Trump said in his 1987 bestseller, The Art of the Deal.

Trump continued: “One thing led to another, and now I’m talking about building a large luxury hotel, across the street from the Kremlin, in partnership with the Soviet government.”

Trump’s chatty version of events is incomplete. According to Natalia Dubinina, the actual story involved a more determined effort by the Soviet government to seek out Trump. In February 1985 Kryuchkov complained again about “the lack of appreciable results of recruitment against the Americans in most Residencies.” The ambassador arrived in New York in March 1986. His original job was Soviet ambassador to the U.N.; his daughter Dubinina was already living in the city with her family, and she was part of the Soviet U.N. delegation.

Dubinin wouldn’t have answered to the KGB. And his role wasn’t formally an intelligence one. But he would have had close contacts with the power apparatus in Moscow. He enjoyed greater trust than other, lesser ambassadors.

Dubinina said she picked up her father at the airport. It was his first time in New York City. She took him on a tour. The first building they saw was Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, she told Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper. Dubinin was so excited he decided to go inside to meet the building’s owner. They got into the elevator. At the top, Dubinina said, they met Trump.

The ambassador—“fluent in English and a brilliant master of negotiations”—charmed the busy Trump, telling him: “The first thing I saw in the city is your tower!”

Dubinina said: “Trump melted at once. He is an emotional person, somewhat impulsive. He needs recognition. And, of course, when he gets it he likes it. My father’s visit worked on him [Trump] like honey to a bee.”

This encounter happened six months before the Estée Lauder lunch. In Dubinina’s account she admits her father was trying to hook Trump. The man from Moscow wasn’t a wide-eyed rube but a veteran diplomat who served in France and Spain, and translated for Nikita Khrushchev when he met with Charles de Gaulle at the Elysée Palace in Paris. He had seen plenty of impressive buildings. Weeks after his first Trump meeting, Dubinin was named Soviet ambassador to Washington.

Dubinina’s own role is interesting. According to a foreign intelligence archive smuggled to the West, the Soviet mission to the U.N. was a haven for the KGB and GRU (Soviet military intelligence). Many of the 300 Soviet nationals employed at the U.N. secretariat were Soviet intelligence officers working undercover, including as personal assistants to secretary-generals. The Soviet U.N. delegation had greater success in finding agents and gaining political intelligence than the KGB’s New York residency.

Dubinin’s other daughter, Irina, said that her late father—he died in 2013—was on a mission as ambassador. This was, she said, to make contact with America’s business elite. For sure, Gorbachev’s Politburo was interested in understanding capitalism. But Dubinin’s invitation to Trump to visit Moscow looks like a classic cultivation exercise, which would have had the KGB’s full support and approval.

In The Art of the Deal, Trump writes: “In January 1987, I got a letter from Yuri Dubinin, the Soviet ambassador to the United States, that began: ‘It is a pleasure for me to relay some good news from Moscow.’ It went on to say that the leading Soviet state agency for international tourism, Goscomintourist, had expressed interest in pursuing a joint venture to construct and manage a hotel in Moscow.”

There were many ambitious real estate developers in the United States—why had Moscow picked Trump?

According to Viktor Suvorov—a former GRU military spy—and others, the KGB ran Intourist, the agency to which Trump referred. It functioned as a subsidiary KGB branch. Initiated in 1929 by Stalin, Intourist was the Soviet Union’s official state travel agency. Its job was to vet and monitor all foreigners coming into the Soviet Union. “In my time it was KGB,” Suvorov said. “They gave permission for people to visit.” The KGB’s first and second directorates routinely received lists of prospective visitors to the country based on their visa applications.

As a GRU operative, Suvorov was personally involved in recruitment, albeit for a rival service to the KGB. Soviet spy agencies were always interested in cultivating “young ambitious people,” he said—an upwardly mobile businessman, a scientist, a “guy with a future.”

Once in Moscow, they would receive lavish hospitality. “Everything is free. There are good parties with nice girls. It could be a sauna and girls and who knows what else.” The hotel rooms or villa were under “24-hour control,” with “security cameras and so on,” Suvorov said. “The interest is only one. To collect some information and keep that information about him for the future.”

These dirty-tricks operations were all about the long term, Suvorov said. The KGB would expend effort on visiting students from the developing world, not least Africa. After 10 or 20 years, some of them would be “nobody.” But others would have risen to positions of influence in their own countries.

Suvorov explained: “It’s at this point you say: ‘Knock, knock! Do you remember the marvelous time in Moscow? It was a wonderful evening. You were so drunk. You don’t remember? We just show you something for your good memory.’”

Over in the communist German Democratic Republic, one of Kryuchkov’s 34-year-old officers—one Vladimir Putin—was busy trying to recruit students from Latin America. Putin arrived in Dresden in August 1985, together with his pregnant wife, Lyudmila, and one-year-old daughter, Maria. They lived in a KGB apartment block.

According to the writer Masha Gessen, one of Putin’s tasks was to try to befriend foreigners studying at the Dresden University of Technology. The hope was that, if recruited, the Latin Americans might work in the United States as undercover agents, reporting back to the Center. Putin set about this together with two KGB colleagues and a retired Dresden policeman.

Precisely what Putin did while working for the KGB’s First Directorate in Dresden is unknown. It may have included trying to recruit Westerners visiting Dresden on business and East Germans with relatives in the West. Putin’s efforts, Gessen suggests, were mostly a failure. He did manage to recruit a Colombian student. Overall his operational results were modest.

By January 1987, Trump was closer to the “prominent person” status of Kryuchkov’s note. Dubinin deemed Trump interesting enough to arrange his trip to Moscow. Another thirtysomething U.S.-based Soviet diplomat, Vitaly Churkin—the future U.N. ambassador—helped put it together. On July 4, 1987, Trump flew to Moscow for the first time, together with Ivana and Lisa Calandra, Ivana’s Italian-American assistant.

Moscow was, Trump wrote, “an extraordinary experience.” The Trumps stayed in Lenin’s suite at the National Hotel, at the bottom of Tverskaya Street, near Red Square. Seventy years earlier, in October 1917, Lenin and his wife, Nadezhda Krupskaya, had spent a week in room 107. The hotel was linked to the glass-and-concrete Intourist complex next door and was— in effect—under KGB control. The Lenin suite would have been bugged.

Meanwhile, the mausoleum containing the Bolshevik leader’s embalmed corpse was a short walk away. Other Soviet leaders were interred beneath the Kremlin’s wall in a communist pantheon: Stalin, Brezhnev, Andropov—Kryuchkov’s old mentor—and Dzerzhinsky.

According to The Art of the Deal, Trump toured “a half dozen potential sites for a hotel, including several near Red Square.” “I was impressed with the ambition of Soviet officials to make a deal,” he writes. He also visited Leningrad, later St. Petersburg. A photo shows Donald and Ivana standing in Palace Square—he in a suit, she in a red polka dot blouse with a string of pearls. Behind them are the Winter Palace and the state Hermitage museum.

That July the Soviet press wrote enthusiastically about the visit of a foreign celebrity. This was Gabriel García Márquez, the Nobel Prize–winning novelist and journalist. Pravda featured a long conversation between the Colombian guest and Gorbachev. García Márquez spoke of how South Americans, himself included, sympathized with socialism and the USSR. Moscow brought García Márquez over for a film festival.

Trump’s visit appears to have attracted less attention. There is no mention of him in Moscow’s Russian State Library newspaper archive. (Either his visit went unreported or any articles featuring it have been quietly removed.) Press clippings do record a visit by a West German official and an Indian cultural festival.

The KGB’s private dossier on Trump, by contrast, would have gotten larger. The agency’s multipage profile would have been enriched with fresh material, including anything gleaned via eavesdropping.

Nothing came of the trip—at least nothing in terms of business opportunities inside Russia. This pattern of failure would be repeated in Trump’s subsequent trips to Moscow. But Trump flew back to New York with a new sense of strategic direction. For the first time he gave serious indications that he was considering a career in politics. Not as mayor or governor or senator.

Trump was thinking about running for president.

Ako si moćan Rus, onda padneš kroz prozor, ako si zamjenik direktora jedne od najvećih američkih vojnih korporacija, onda ti padne avion... naravno, sve su to tek slučajnosti.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1194719...e-coast-Florida.html

twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644138707216130050?s=20

Prije mjesec dana su iscurili dokumenti sa jako puno detalja o situaciji u Ukrajini. Brojevi, datumi, iznosi... baš nezgodne stvari koje su tek prije par dana izazvale veću pozornost kad su se počele pojavljivati na telegram kanalima i kad se pojavila Ruska verzija Photoshopiranih brojki s gubicima obije strane.

Ukrajinske pozicije, procjene gubitaka, potrošnja granata, raketa, treninzi, planirane dostave nadopuna i svašta što je sad zakompliciralo stvari za Ukrajinu ali i Ameriku.

www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/damage-ass...derway-in-us-ukraine

> The documents apparently show a wide range of details from Ukrainian and Russian troop dispositions, Ukrainian combat power generation, the anticipated delivery time of donated tanks and other armor, casualty figures, the number of U.S. and allied special operations forces in Ukraine, the number of U.S. and NATO troops and aircraft and U.S. submarines in the region, status of the conflict as of March 1, projected weather ahead of the anticipated counteroffensive and even the Ukrainian usage of munitions, including the U.S. donated Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) munitions for the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.

Kretanje Ruskih trupa po bojišnici, iz procurjelih dokumenata.

Ja bih se dao objesiti da je to varalica AFU. I prije harkivske ofanzive su izvrsno zavarali ruske snage, dosad su se pokazali izuzetno inventivni u ovom ratu.

dpasaric kaže:


Bem ti članak i novinarsku struku,... od ukupno 15-ak prosto proširenih rečenica, rečenicu: "Jeff Lumpkin, 64, pomoćnik direktora u Raytheonu, i njegova supruga Patty Lumpkin, 68, iz Fishers, Indiana, poginuli su u nesreći" - ponavljaju četiri puta, rečenicu "Rick Beaver, 60, i njegova supruga Bethe, 57, iz Noblesvillea, Indiana, također su poginuli kada se zrakoplov srušio" - tri puta.
Kad dodamo da se navod kako se zrakoplov srušio se u blizini ribarskog pristaništa Venice ubrzo nakon polijetanja, u ovom ili onom obliku isto ponavlja 5-6 puta, pitam se što nam ostane od članka osim zaključka da u Rusiji ispadaju kroz prozor, a u Americi ginu u avionima.
Baš me zanima kako je u Australiji,... tamo ih valjda nepodobne i one kojima je istakao rok trajanja ubijaju klokanima.

PS. Komentari čitatelja su poseban level

Djuro genijalac kaže:


I ja isto mislim. To znači možemo očekivati u narednih par dana učestalo pušenje u skladištima vojne opreme po okupiranim teritorijima. A možda čak i na jedanom mostu?

Ne djeluje tako. Ispada da je previše detalja unutra da bi bilo fake.

www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/l...sia-ukraine-war.html

> The documents paint a portrait of a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and of a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself.

Bertone kaže:


Novinarstvo je palo na novo dno, a to se pogotovo vidjelo u pandemiji. No, nije to sada tema, svakako je činjenica da je tip poginuo jer mu se srušio avion. I mnogi drugi su o tome pisali.

meaww.com/tributes-pour-in-for-raytheon-...fe-after-plane-crash

Naravno, ostaje na prosudbu čitatelja je li to jednako slučajno kao kada neki Rus slučajno padne kroz prozor i slično. Kada malo pratiš "teorije zavjere", onda je tamo cijela lista nepoželjnih na zapadu i kako ih "sudbina", tj. nečiji metak ili "nesreća" sustignu. Džogirao je i odjednom je pregažen... Dakle, možemo zaključiti da situacija nije bolja niti u toj velikoj demokraciji na zapadu. Sve to pišem jer cijelo vrijeme imamo tuču dva bad guya, a nama se predstavlja da je jedan anđeo pravde i demokracije.

Davore, demokracija ne postoji. Pravda isto.
Cak i stari Grci demokraciju su ogranicavali na odabrane. Vlast je jos vise ogranicena na odabrane.

Ovo nije samo situaciju u Hrvatskoj, spomenuo sam prije nekoliko mjeseci kako neke države godinama rovare kroz razne propagandne trikove da oslabe demokratska društva i ona koja to žele biti. Neko novo društvo kolektivizma za koji će Kina biti pojam slobode, a Hitler i ekipa kamilica lagano kucka na vrata.
Demokracija kao i mir nisu zagarantirana stanja, baš zbog svojih sloboda i izbora su pod stalnom prijetnjom i trenutno su narušena što korupcijom i kriminalom (pratite trag novca, pa će se i tu doći do zaključaka u čijem je interesu takvo stanje), a što zbog suludih i loših odluka odabranih/izabranih (khm, khm, slučajno su baš "nesposobni") bez u mnogim državama ikakvog otpora naroda. Demokracija je tu da se nadograđuje na bolje, ali je krhka i zato je mnogi olako osuđuju. Naravno da to što je neka država/društvo demokratska ne znači da je ta država i život u njoj super, ali postoji temelj slobode mišljenja i djelovanja. I nikad ne treba smetnuti s uma kako je narod u većini amorfna masa koja za čas bude u ulozi izvršitelja "banalnosti zla".

Mladi u Hrvatskoj priželjkuju čvrstu ruku na vlasti, a diktatura im ne djeluje toliko strašno. Možda da se netko zabrine?

Jel itko skužio da Ameri ove Black Hawk heliće zovu "Crash Hawk"?
I da stvarno padaju ko blesavi?
U zadnjih tjedan dana pala su tri.
Zanima me logika zašto su izabrali baš Black Hawk ovi naši, da li zbog varijacija na temu tipa SuperHawk za gašenje požara, Sea Hawk za mornaricu ili nešto petnaesto?

Zatišje pred buru. Rusija je po 890-ti put objavila da je zauzela Bahmut (kao da bi se time, čak i da je to istina nakon dobrih deset mjeseci napadanja, trebalo hvaliti) iako to nije istina. Evo jedne objave s Telegrama koja najbolje opisuje situaciju. Ovo je s ukrajinske strane.



I original, ako netko želi.




No, ne pišem to zato. Molim sve da obrate pozornost na ovu objavu dolje.



Pogledajte što je (p)ostalo prioritet za AFU: zapovjedna i mjesta veze, uporišta kontrole PZO i PZO, te sredstva za protuelektroničku borbu. Pored uobičajenih udara po logističkim centrima u pozadini, ovo je ono što se zove shaping operations. Pripreme za kontraofanzivu su u punom zamahu. A nju ovako dočekuje ruska strana.



I prijatelju Girkina je dosta propagande vlastite strane.







Sad bih mogao spomenuti i da se upravitelj Krima hvali pripremama za obranu i rovovima koji su iskopani. Od rata u tri dana smo došli do situacije gdje treba objavljivati kako se Krim može (o)braniti.

Djuro genijalac kaže:


Ja pak vjerujem da je ta perspektiva potpuno kriva.

Cijelo vrijeme je to zapadno tumačenje, da se Rusi jako muče osvojiti Bahmut. Od prvog dana je to njihov savršeni Starcraft choke point i "meat grinder". Što duže melje, to bolje za Ruse. Koliko je sati vidi se i po naslovima u našim medijma koji su prestali biti optimistični.

Baš ništa dobroga nema na obzoru za Ukrajinu, tj. kako je naš admiral Lošo rekao: "Rat je strateški gotov, ovo je sada samo tehnički dio koji se pomalo završava."

dpasaric kaže:


Podsjećam na njegovu izjavu da je sve gotovo u 72 sata i da se Ukrajina ne treba niti pokušati truditi, jer će joj se vojska razbježati. Ako je taj lik admiral, onda bih ja sad, iz ove pozicije armchair generala, mogao zapovjedati barem Tigrovima...

Nego, ove ostale ruske izvore ne komentiraš, ignoriraš ili im ne vjeruješ? Evo, onaj konkretno o navodnom uspjehu kod Avdiivke koji je sama ruska strana prikazala kao potpuni masakr tj. egzekuciju? Gdje se eksplicitno tvrdi da nedostaje pješaštvo. Ne dobro, nego bilo kakvo, jer je sve protraćeno u tim besmislenim čeonim napadima bez ikakvog konkretnijeg učinka?

Ništa je to ne osporavam, da Rusi imaju velike gubitke, ali ponovit ću po x-ti put da to *nije bitno* za konačni ishod. Od početka je jasno da oni ovaj rat ne mogu izgubiti.

dpasaric kaže:


Na cemu baziras ovu tvrdnju?

a) Da imaju neogranicen broj ljudskih zivota koje mogu zrtvovati beskonacno dugo?

b) Da imaju dovoljno jaku vojnu industriju i novac da ovaj rat financiraju jos desetljece ako treba?

Dejan Beric, onaj Srbin koji organizira srpske dobrovoljce u Donbas objavio video prije dan dva.

Procedura je bila da kad se ljudi jave, oni ih pokupe na aerodromu i vode u centar za obuku. Tamo provode dva mjeseca pune pjesacke obuke (temeljna) i onda ih lagano salju na front gdje treba. Obicno je to topnistvo, logistika i sl. Kasnije kada imaju nekog ratnog iskustva idu u borbe.

E taj lik prije dva dana prica da je tim novopristiglim dragovoljcima iz Srbije odjednom postalo DOSADNO na poligonu i "da cackaju nos tamo" od silne zelje da idu sto prije u borbe. Tako da je obuka smanjena na citavih 15 DANA

Zamisli sada nekog TitTok/YouTube ratnika koji nije sluzio vojsku, ne moze dva skleka uraditi, niti pretrcati 500m. Stigo je ljudina u Ukrajinu, sav nahajpan na novi svjetski poredak u kojem je i on nesto bitan, te nakon 15 dana on je u rovu. Idealan kandidat da nastrada, jer takav nije u stanju ni pobjeci da spasi zivu glavu.

Znaci da u Donbasu kronicno nemaju ljudstva, gori im pod nogama a Ukrajinska ofanziva sve bliza.

Vjerujem da su im pokupili dosta vojske i poslali juzno, pa mozda zato nema doovljno ljudi da brani taj East. Mozda Ukrajina i tamo udari pa prodju ko Kharkiv. Tko zna

Djuro genijalac kaže:


Nitko ne kaže da je Lošo bezveznjak, ali ako gledate istupe tog čovjeka, gdje stalno ima potrebu isticati, da je on glavni strateg oluje i maltene da je najpametniji, onda ja tog čovjeka moram uzeti s rezervom, kao i bilo kojeg čovjeka koji tvrdi za sebe da ja naj u bilo kojem području. Oni koji su naj bilo gdje to dobro znaju i nemaju potrebe to govoriti, nego će to drugi reći za njih, kad su to činjenice

Koliko vidim iz ovog topica Đuro se po meni najbolje kuži u neke stvari, pa nikad nije imao potrebu sam to isticati, jer svatko tko s razumljevanjem čita to može zaključiti.

Dobro da Lošo ne kaže da je najveći Hrvatski patriot, koji se je uključio tek kad mu je JNA napravila zube, na koje je imao pravo

Sad ostavljam rezervu da je to bila igra, s obzirom na posao kojim se bavi, moguće je, mada me više vuče pomisao da je došao po zadatku.

Ovo bi moglo biti jako zanimljivo....

dronedj.com/2023/04/10/ukraine-drone-moscow-victory-day/

Strong Mathias Rust vibes there....!

drlovric kaže:


a) Tako je, imaju veći broj ljudskih života koje mogu žrtvovati od Ukrajine, a to je gola numerička činjenica. A da dođe i do malo vjerojatnog scenarija u kojem neka druga zemlja odluči slati svoje topovsko meso da tamo gine "u beskonačnost", uvijek imaju "asa u rukavu" u obliku taktičkog nuklearnog - ako ih situacija baš stisne.

b) Tako je, upravo to. Dovoljno je u Starcraft stilu pogledati mapu i vidjeti raspored resursa i sve je jasno. A onda se može još dodatno pogledati karta svijeta i vidjeti koja je površina država koje su na njihovoj strani ili su neutralne, a koliko ih je na strani Amerike, pa i tu vidimo da je situacija crna za Ukrajinu.

Ukratko, sve će završiti kako je prof. Mearsheimer predvidio i svakim danom to postaje sve jasnije.

A pratite li novu "predstavu za narod" s navodnim curenjem tajnih podataka iz Pentagona?

Naravno da "curenja" nema, radi se o smišljenom planu da se unese FUD u medijski prostor i da se ljude pomalo pripremi za poraz i za pregovore s Rusima. Što se sve znalo da će tako biti i u startu, ali morali su prvo maznuti što više love.

twitter.com/Mawunya_/status/1646233509449846784?s=20

dpasaric kaže:


Je, ali već smo jednom o tome raspravljali i to ignoriraš. Rusija ima nešto manje od 3,5 puta više stanovništva od Ukrajine, ali njeni gubici u ovom ratu su negdje između omjera 6 i 7 naprama 1. Iako je to u apsolutnim iznosima velik broj ljudi, ni to nije vreća bez dna. Ako na to nadovežemo drugu točku, a što ignoriraš, onda je bitno primjetiti da je rusko stanovništvo u prosjeku starije od ukrajinskog pa ta brojčana prednost relativno brzo okopni, jer netko tko ima 57 godina na bojištu nije ni izbliza jednako efikasan kao netko sa 30 godina, posebno ne u pješačkom smislu, a to je ruski forte. Pored toga, već sad se osjeća nedostatak radne snage koja je poslana da izgine po bojištima Ukrajine; jedna osoba može biti samo na jednom mjestu odjednom. Tako da je to sve skupa isprepleteno i ne možeš sve promatrati samo suho brojčano.
Za kraj, zbog unutarnjepolitičkih razloga ljudi iz oblasti Moskve i St.Peterburga se dosad NISU mobilizirali što stvara dodatni pritisak na ostala područja koja su brojčano slabije naseljena (tj. tamo ima manje ljudi), ali tamo je istovremeno smješteno više teške industrije koja bi sad trebala nadoknađivati gubitke u opremi s bojišta, a tamo se najdublje grabi u populacijski bazen pa je nedostatak radne snage još jače izražen. Dakle, nije to baš samo tako; podsjećam još jednom što sam rekao nebrojeno puta dosad: Rusija NIJE SSSR, iako bi to žarko željela biti. SSSR je proizvodio sve što im je trebalo; danas Rusija nije u stanju proizvesti kuglične ležaje. Zato se i prazne skladišta od SSSR-a, a i to polako dolazi svojem kraju (sad se izvlače T-55ice, jer je sve novije od toga već satrano/koristi se).

Izgleda da je pronađen izvor na kojem je procurilo, mladi entuzijast oružja.

www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/12k8...on_military/jg1ksk0/

> United by their mutual love of guns, military gear and God, the group of roughly two dozen — mostly men and boys — formed an invitation-only clubhouse in 2020 on Discord, an online platform popular with gamers. But they paid little attention last year when the man some call “OG” posted a message laden with strange acronyms and jargon. The words were unfamiliar, and few people read the long note, one of the members explained. But he revered OG, the elder leader of their tiny tribe, who claimed to know secrets that the government withheld from ordinary people. The young member read OG’s message closely, and the hundreds more that he said followed on a regular basis for months. They were, he recalled, what appeared to be near-verbatim transcripts of classified intelligence documents that OG indicated he had brought home from his job on a “military base,” which the member declined to identify. OG claimed he spent at least some of his day inside a secure facility that prohibited cellphones and other electronic devices, which could be used to document the secret information housed on government computer networks or spooling out from printers.

> The young member was impressed by OG’s seemingly prophetic ability to forecast major events before they became headline news, things “only someone with this kind of high clearance” would know. He was by his own account enthralled with OG, who he said was in his early to mid-20s. “He’s fit. He’s strong. He’s armed. He’s trained. Just about everything you can expect out of some sort of crazy movie,” the member said. In a video seen by The Post, the man who the member said is OG stands at a shooting range, wearing safety glasses and ear coverings and holding a large rifle. He yells a series of racial and antisemitic slurs into the camera, then fires several rounds at a target. The member seemed drawn to OG’s bravado and his skill with weapons. He felt a certain kinship with a man he described as “like an uncle” and, on another occasion, as a father figure

dpasaric kaže:


o.k. da prihvatimo da rusi ne mogu izgubiti ovaj rat, ali je stvar u tome sto ga ne mogu dobiti, tj. ostvariti ciljeve. na kraju krajeva - sta su njihovi ciljeci, i sta je onda pobeda a sta poraz?
ne mogu izgubiti, jer ne vode rat na svojoj teritoriji, a po svoj prilici nece se ni voditi unutar rusije. uvek se mogu vratiti unutar svojih granica. slicno je bilo sa afganistanskom pricom - oni nisu izgubili taj rat tamo, izuzev onoliko gubitaka i ljudskih i materijalnih.
a sto se tice Warcraft logike i ljudskih resursa, ja bih te pitao sledece:
recimo zarate Hrvatska i Slovenija, tj Hrvatska krene u spec vojnu akciju da recimo oslobodi piranski zaliv. i pozovu tebe da ides tamo da oslobadjas, znas da ides u nepoznato, neopremljen, sa starim naoruzanjem, sa nesposobnim vojnim rukovodstvom, ali... ma zabole me, po Warcraft logici mi cemo pobediti, jer nas ima duplo vise nego slovenaca, nema veze sto cu poginuti u prvih nedelju dana rata. da li je to tvoje razmisljanje?

Ender kaže:


To ti je kao nekad u Jugi u planskoj privredi. Recimo tvornica cipela ima plan da napravi 50000 pari cipela. Na kraju godine ih naprave 30000 a promjene plan i kažu da je plan bio recimo 15000 pari cipela, i tako oni premaše plan za sto posto...tak će i Rusi s svojim planovima, ako im nakon ovog rata ostane Krim, oni će reći da im je SVO imala cilj sačuvati Krim. S takvim načinom razmišljanja izgubiti je nemoguće, samo moraš imati "pametan" narod koji će to popušiti.

@Djuro:

Odlicno obrazlozeno. Jos si zaboravio na vojno sposobne Ruse koji su pobjegli van granica Rusije, cisto da izbjegnu rat.

U Beogradu ne mozes na semaforu stati da ne vidis auto ruskih reg plocica

I taj trend iseljavanja ce se dodatno povecavati svakim novom mobilizacijom...

Ender kaže:


Da, to mu je razmisljanje. I meni je cudno da odrasla osoba to radi, ali eto nas je, pa mu puno ne zamjerimo

P.S. Nije Warcraft, nego Starcraft

u Beogradu rusa ima k'o oktobra 1944. digli su cene iznajmiljivanja stanova u nebo.
ja imam jednog kolegu rusa (radimo za talijansku firmu) koji vec godinu dana ne ide kuci u rusiju, nego je na terenu stalno, svakih 3 meseca dodje u Beograd ili Istanbul da se sretne sa porodicom. sredili su mu kolege da otvori racun u Srbiji gde mu uplacuje firma zaradu.
nije jedini.

wascraft ili starcraft - sorry, nisam iz te price, ne igram igrice.